Conservation biology and population forecast

A species goes locally extinct or becomes an invasive to a large extent because its demographic processes are failing or succeeding too much at replacing old individuals with new ones. The quantification and incorporation of these processes into predictive models of population performance is the bread and butter of demography. However, classical demographic tools are too data-hungry, requiring too many censused individuals, too perfect data, and too many years of fieldwork before robust projections can be made… but that time land managers have already had to make a call as to whether to preserve an endangered species, or eradicate an invasive one.

lifecycle of the endemic fire dependent drosophyllum lusitanicum paniw et al 2017 j appl ecol

The SalGo team has developed software that allows for the incorporation of demographic data into less-data hungry models. Equally, we liaise with land managers, environmental economists and social scientists through our PI’s affiliation with the Centre of Excellence in Environmental Decisions (Australia) to catalyse demographic solutions that help optimal management.

a few recruits of cistus albidus credit r salguero gomez
SalGo team members:
  • Simran Aujla
  • James Cant
  • Aldo Compagnoni
  • John Jackson
  • Sam Levin
  • Rob Salguero-Gómez


Selected collaborators:


Selected publications

Compagnoni ALevin S, Childs D, Harpole S, Paniw M, Römer G, Burns J, Che-Castaldo J, Rüger N, Kunstler G, Bennett J, Archer R, Salguero-Gómez R* & Knight T*. In press. Perennial plants with short generation time have stronger responses to climate anomalies than those with longer generation time. Nature Communications (BioRxiv DOI 10.1101/2020.06.18.160135v1)

Carmona C, Tamme R, Pärtel M, de Bello F, Brosse S, Capdevila P, González-M R, González-Suárez M, Salguero-Gómez R, Vásquez-Valderrama M & Toussaint A. In press. Mapping extinction risk in the global functional spectra across the tree of life. Science Advances (BioRxiv DOI 2020.06.29.179143)

Sanne E, Knight T, Inouye D, Miller T, Salguero-Gómez R, Iler A, Compagnoni AIn press. Lagged and dormant-season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season. Global Change Biology DOI 10.1111/gcb.15519

McCormick H, Salguero-Gómez R, Mills M, Davis D. In press. Using a residency index to estimate the value of saltmarsh fisheries. Conservation Science and Practice (BioRxiv DOI 10.1101/755835)

Capdevila P, Bernat H, Salguero-Gómez R, Rovira G, Medrano A, Cebrián E, Garrabou J, Kersting D & Linares C. 2019. Warming impacts on early life stages can increase the vulnerability and delay the recovery of long-lived macroalgae populations. Journal of Ecology 107, 1129-1140. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13090

Tye MR,  Menges E, Weekley C, QuintanaAscencio PF & Salguero-Gómez R. 2016. A demographic ménage à trois: interactions between disturbances drive population dynamics of an endemic plant species. Journal of Ecology 104, 1778–1788 Highlight of the Plant Population Ecology section of the ESA DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.12642

Iles D, Salguero-Gómez R, Adler A & Koons D. 2016. Transient dynamics and life history explain biological invasion success. Journal of Ecology 104, 399-408, DOI: 10.1111/13652745.12517

Merow C, Dahlgren J, Metcalf CJE, Childs D, Evans MEK, Jongejans E, Metcalf CJE, Record S, Rees M, SalgueroGómez R & McMahon S.  2014. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide. Methods in Ecology & Evolution 2, 99-110. Editor’s monthly publication choiceDOI 10.1111/2041210X.12146

Zambrano J & Salguero-Gómez R. 2014. Forest fragmentation disrupts the population dynamics of a late-successional tropical tree. Biotropica 46, 556-564. DOI: 10.1111/btp.12144